GRAMMY PREDICTIONS: Breaking Down the Odds for Best African Music Performance

The Best African Music Performance category at the 66th Grammy Awards is a fiercely competitive one.

There are a number of worthy contenders vying for the honour. They include Davido, who has been a global sensation.

South Africa’s rising star Tyla also has a good chance of taking home the award, thanks to her unique sound that is the talk of the moment.

Not forgetting Ayra’s undeniable charisma. Asake and Olamide’s powerful delivery of Amapiano. And the phenomenal Burna Boy.

Who will be crowned the inaugural winner of the Best African Music Performance award? Only time will tell. Meanwhile, here’s our ratings of their chances.

1. Rush by Ayra Starr (10%)

Ayra Starr, popularly called Sabi Girl, is nominated this year for the first time for her hit single “Rush,” which was featured on her debut studio album, 19 & Dangerous.

The Afro-pop song has gotten a massive reach, with about 300 million views on YouTube and widespread acclaim from fans across the continent of Africa.

Without any major promotion in the US, the song gained moderate popularity there mainly through social media buzz, making her a beloved figure outside the shores of Africa.

Although the 21-year-old Grammy nominee is a big deal, “Rush” doesn’t seem like a strong contender for the Best African Performance award as Ayra Starr is still making a name for herself as a force to be reckoned with and is still being discovered and embraced by listeners in other parts of the world.

2. Water by Tyla (20%)

It’s no secret that Tyla’s Water was a viral sensation on TikTok, gaining millions of views and sparking a wave of TikTok challenges.

Her strategy in capturing the American audience with electrifying performances on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon in New York could play a major role in her Grammy prospects.

“Water” marked a historic moment for Tyla, as she became the youngest South African artist to reach No. 67 on the Billboard Hot 100.

The song’s enduring success is reflected in its rise to No. 11 on the Billboard Hot 100, where it remained for 17 consecutive weeks.

Tyla’s profound impact could get her a first Grammy for Best African Music Performance.

Don’t forget, the 22-year-old had the whole world performing the sensual Bacardi dance moves, proving that South African music can conquer the world stage.

ALSO READ: Grammys “Best African Music Performance” Category: A Cause for Celebration or Concern?

3. Amapiano by Asake and Olamide (13%)

Singer and producer, Olamide and Asake, both earned their first Grammy nominations for their work on the track, “Amapiano” featured on Asake’s album ‘Work of Art.’

This is a historic moment for Asake and his label boss, Olamide and a recognition of the Amapiano sound as a huge force in music.

The roots of amapiano lie in the vibrant music scene of South Africa, where it first took shape and later gained popularity in Nigeria.

Asake has enjoyed a meteoric rise in popularity, with his music connecting with audiences around the world and positioning him and his collaborator as top contenders for Best African Music Performance.

4. Burna Boy (27%)

Burna Boy’s four Grammy nominations in the upcoming awards ceremony further establish him as a Grammy powerhouse, with nods in categories such as Best African Music Performance, Best Melodic Rap Performance, Best Global Music Album, and Best Global Music Performance.

He is also set to grace the Grammy’s stage as the first African performer.

Burna Boy’s album ‘I Told Them,’ showcases his versatility and genre-bending artistry.

As one of the leading figures in the Afrobeat movement, Burna Boy has a strong chance of taking home the Best African Music Performance award for ‘City Boys’.

With 102 million streams on Spotify, Burna Boy’s ‘City Boys’ is a clear favourite among fans and critics alike.

But even if he loses, thankfully, Angélique Kidjo isn’t in the Global Album race. Since there’s no direct competition from her, fans can breathe a sigh of relief and focus on cheering him to victory.

Furthermore, Burna Boy’s hit ‘Sitting on Top of The World‘ featuring American rapper 21 Savage has been highly celebrated by the Hip Hop community. It shouldn’t be underestimated in the Best Melodic Rap Performance category.

5. Unavailable by Davido and Musa Keys (30%)

Davido’s tireless efforts have finally paid off, making him one of Africa’s frontrunners at the upcoming Grammy Awards. This is a milestone achievement for the superstar.

While the coveted Best Global Album category may be a long shot, the Best African Music Performance category is well within reach for Davido.

The nominated song ‘Unavailable’ featuring Musa Keys gained immense popularity from the week of its release and was a chart-topper. It topped Spotify’s most streamed Afrobeats song list in 2023.

It didn’t matter that the song ‘Champion Sound‘ is the lead single for Davido’s Timeless album, the second single Unavailable appeared to be the chosen one by fans.

This reflects the strength of its performance.